The Shifting Sands of Academic Publishing: Key insights from LBF 2026
The London Book Fair always serves as a vital barometer for the industry, but this year the atmosphere in the Tech Theatre felt particularly charged. Patrick Shafe, Commercial Director at Deanta, took to the stage to deliver a session on the current state of academic publishing, informed by their recent Trends in Academic Publishing report. The insights Shafe shared were a stark reminder that while the sector is growing, it’s also facing a period of significant structural change.
The growth paradox
The statistics shared paint a picture of a sector in rapid expansion. Publishing output revenues have increased, as have author submissions. However, this growth is accompanied by a major shift in format: over a third of content is now digital first, and nearly half of all output is Open Access.
Despite these healthy numbers, there remains some trepidation. When asked about their readiness for the future, only 8% of publishers feel they are truly well positioned. Over 60% admit to having significant gaps to fill. Interestingly, there has also been a retreat toward the familiar, with half of publishers now labelling themselves as traditionalists, a sharp rise from last year. So, in the face of rapid change, many are falling back on established identities even as they attempt to innovate.
The drivers of change: AI and infrastructure
Unsurprisingly, economic uncertainty and the impact of AI on strategic planning are the primary catalysts for the shifts we’re seeing. Research integrity is also a growing concern, with just over a third of respondents citing the quality of product as a major pressure point, an issue inextricably linked to the rise of AI generated content.
In response, three quarters of academic publishers are prioritising the modernisation of systems and workflows. Shafe noted that digital transformation should not just be about doing the same things more quickly or cheaply. It requires a fundamental rethink of what business publishers are actually in. We are moving toward a watershed moment where publishers must stop seeing themselves as content silos and start seeing themselves as data businesses.
The AI frontier: support vs. risk
Publishers are becoming increasingly comfortable with AI handling technical, high volume tasks. Over half of respondents are looking to AI for plagiarism detection, half for text generation to meet accessibility needs, and over a third for copyediting. Other “green light” tasks include XML tagging and generating marketing content.
However, the “red zone” remains clear. High stakes areas like peer review and boardroom level strategic decision making are still seen as strictly human domains. Yet, even this is evolving. Shafe suggested that we may soon see AI integrated as a “fourth peer reviewer,” acting as a tool to support human experts rather than replace them.
The rise of the technology partner
The changing nature of professional relationships is also an important consideration. The industry is moving away from the traditional model of outsourcing to “vendors.” Instead, there is a demand for technology partners and consultants who can offer integrated solutions. The goal is a “completely connected future” where systems, data, and people work in harmony. Automation and insights should be harnessed to improve both the employee experience and the customer experience. By improving the ordering process and discoverability, publishers can find new revenue streams rather than simply cutting costs.
Rethinking audience engagement
With Google search traffic predicted to decline by 43% over the next three years, this shift will require academic publishers to rethink how they attract and retain audiences (source: Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism).
As we look to the next five years, it’s clear that infrastructure and tech changes will continue define the industry. The companies who embrace more risk and step into the role of an agile, data driven innovator will likely thrive. For the rest, the gaps to fill may only grow wider.
Read more about Deanta’s Trends in Academic Publishing report here.
